Tentative Recovery is Spreading Across the Country
According to Moody’s economists, the
regional economic outlook shows that the economic recovery is gradually making its way across the country. It started in the central core of the country, and spread west first. Now it is beginning to impact the southeast and northeast positively.
The map at the Economy.com website shows a swatch of states “in recovery” down the middle of the country and in the upper northwest. These states include Idaho, Montana, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and Alaska. The only northeastern states considered out of the woods as of December 2009 were Vermont and Massachusetts. Most other states are listed as “moderating recession,” except for Nevada, which is still considered to be in recession.
There is some evidence of a turnaround in manufacturing in the Midwest. Manufacturing employment is up in the Great Lakes region after lows were hit in June 2009. The Plains region seems poised next for improvements in manufacturing activity.
There are caveats to the signs of life in the economy. The greatest risk Moody’s identifies is that businesses will fail to continue to restock inventory. Further restocking will depend on an upturn in consumer confidence and spending on durable goods such as automobiles. The housing market is still weak and is the second threat area to the economy long term. The states that will lag behind in recovery are those that have lost the most in home market value, especially Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida. The faltering commercial real estate market is identified as the third weak link in economic recovery.
Bernanke Will Assure Feds That Interest Rates Will Not Rise
Amid concerns that interest rates may rise sharply this year, Bernanke is now expected to tell Congress in his semi-annual report on the economy that interest rates will not be going up soon. The Federal Reserve chief is mindful that unemployment remains high and the housing industry is still weak. The New York Federal Reserve President, William Dudley, indicated on Friday that helping to improve the economy’s growth rate is more on the minds of the Federal Reserve Board than the need to fight inflation. Right now there is no real threat of inflation, according to Dudley.
There has been speculation that the Fed’s decision to raise the discount rate to .75% would also trigger a higher benchmark interest rate. Dudley said that the two are not connected. The discount rate was raised to “normalize” lending between banks.
Jobless Claims Are Falling
The Labor Department has posted a total of 440,000 initial jobless claims posted the week ending February 6, a drop of 43,000 from 483,000 posted the week before. This was a lower jobless total than economists had been expecting, according to Briefing.com.
There were 4,538,000 people already on the unemployment rolls who continued their claims in the week ending Jan. 30. That was a decline of 79,000 from the previous week. Economists were expecting continuing claims to have declined 2,000 to 4,600,000. The 4-week moving average of continuing claims was 4,603,500, which is 17,750 less than the preceding week's revised average of 4,621,250. Of course, many of the claimants have dropped off the unemployment rolls because they moved into programs providing extended unemployment benefits, have stopped looking for work already, or are “under-employed” with part-time jobs instead of full-time.
Investors are Snapping Up Residential Lots
One of the next big movements in real estate investment is in residential lots. Throughout the west in particular are housing developments gone sour during the real estate crash that are now just waiting for a resurgence in the housing market to bring builders back to these abandoned projects.
Finished lots, while they are beginning to disappear fast, can still be found at 50 cents on the dollar. Larger projects are going to well funded investor groups at 30 cents on the dollar.
Investor groups are particularly looking at the Phoenix area and Southern California in expectation of the next big boom. It is estimated that there are 40,000 unfinished single family lots in Phoenix alone.
Keep in mind, however, that single lots of this kind are not good material for flipping. Investors who are into this market have money for a buy and hold strategy that will eventually mean doing off-book rolling options to home builders who are currently still money-strapped and unable to carry much inventory on their books.
Expect to hold these lots for 12 to 36 months and bank on the pent-up demand of 1.2 million new housing units needed in the next 10 years just to meet population growth.